Consultancy for a Project-Shaping Resilience Analysis BMZ Transitional Development Assistance (TDA) Somalia – Afmadow District (Jubaland State)

Terms of Reference (ToR)

Consultancy for a Project-Shaping Resilience Analysis
BMZ Transitional Development Assistance (TDA)
Somalia – Afmadow District (Jubaland State)

1. Background

Humedica e. V., in partnership with a local partner organization, is currently developing a multi-year resilience and climate adaptation project for submission under the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) framework for Transitional Development Assistance (TDA).

The proposed intervention, titled: “Strengthening Climate Resilience and Inclusive Community Structures for Vulnerable Households in Afmadow District, Somalia” is expected to be implemented between January 2027 and December 2029 in Afmadow District, Jubaland State, Somalia.

The overall project objective is: Vulnerable households and local governance structures in Afmadow District strengthen their resilience to climate-related shocks and stressors through diversified and climate-resilient livelihoods, sustainable water resource management, improved food and nutrition security, and inclusive, conflict-sensitive community governance mechanisms.

The intervention is expected to contribute to strengthening absorptive, adaptive and transformative resilience capacities at household, community and institutional levels among populations exposed to recurrent climate shocks, environmental degradation, displacement dynamics, conflict-related risks and protracted humanitarian stressors.

In line with BMZ requirements for Structural Transitional Aid, the project design must be informed by a project-shaping resilience analysis.

The assignment is expected to apply a systems-oriented resilience lens that analyses the interlinkages between climate risks, conflict dynamics, governance challenges, social exclusion and livelihood vulnerabilities in order to identify integrated and sustainable resilience pathways.

The resilience analysis is expected to:

• identify the key shocks, stressors and vulnerabilities affecting target populations and institutions,
• assess resilience capacities and systemic gaps,
• analyse climate, governance and conflict-related risks,
• identify resilience pathways and opportunities for systems strengthening,
• and directly inform the intervention logic, resilience pathways, sequencing, Theory of Change, targeting strategy, implementation approach, assumptions and results framework of the proposed project.

2. Purpose of the Assignment

The purpose of this consultancy is to support humedica e. V. and its local implementing partner in conducting a high-quality, BMZ-compliant, project-shaping resilience analysis for the proposed intervention in Afmadow District.

The assignment is expected to critically assess and refine the existing project concept and generate practical recommendations for strengthening the project’s resilience logic, sector integration, conflict sensitivity and sustainability.

The resilience analysis is expected to serve as the analytical foundation for the project’s Theory of Change, outcome structure, targeting approach and results framework.

The analysis should contribute to the development of a robust and evidence-based project design that aligns with the context (and inter-contexts) of the project area, and that in particular considers the following:

• BMZ Transitional Development Assistance priorities,
• resilience and HDP Nexus approaches,
• climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction frameworks,
• conflict-sensitive and inclusive programming principles,
• and locally driven systems strengthening approaches.

The resilience analysis should further support an integrated HDP Nexus approach by identifying opportunities to strengthen linkages between humanitarian response, longer-term development approaches and conflict-sensitive peace-oriented programming.

3. Objectives of the Resilience Analysis

1. Analyse the humanitarian, climate, socio-economic and governance context in Afmadow District.
2. Identify major shocks, stressors and drivers of vulnerability affecting target populations.
3. Assess absorptive, adaptive and transformative resilience capacities at household, community and institutional levels and the linkages within and between these levels.
4. Analyse structural barriers affecting vulnerable and marginalized groups, including women, youth, IDPs and minority groups.
5. Assess local governance systems, social cohesion dynamics and conflict-related risks.
6. Identify resilience gaps relevant to the proposed intervention sectors.
7. Assess the extent to which the current project concept adequately addresses identified resilience challenges.
8. Develop recommendations to strengthen the intervention logic, resilience pathways and results framework.
9. Contribute to the refinement of the project Theory of Change and outcome structure.

4. Scope of Work

4.1 Inception Phase

• Review and refine the assignment methodology.
• Develop an inception note including workplan, methodology, analytical framework and stakeholder engagement approach.
• Conduct a kick-off meeting with humedica e. V. and local implementing partner.

4.2 Desk Review

Review relevant literature, assessments, project documents and secondary data sources relevant to resilience, climate risks, governance, conflict dynamics and humanitarian vulnerabilities in Somalia and Jubaland State.

4.3 Context and Systems Analysis

Conduct a context analysis covering:

• climate and environmental risks,
• drought and flood dynamics,
• livelihoods and socio-economic systems,
• water access and resource governance,
• food and nutrition security,
• displacement dynamics,
• local governance systems,
• social cohesion and community structures,
• gender and social inclusion,
• conflict and political economy dynamics,
• and access to basic services.

The analysis should identify interlinkages between humanitarian vulnerabilities, climate risks, governance challenges, conflict dynamics and systems constraints.

4.4 Shock, Stressor and Vulnerability Analysis

Identify and prioritize:

• acute shocks,
• chronic stressors,
• climate-related risks,
• conflict-related risks,
• economic and market-related vulnerabilities,
• governance-related vulnerabilities,
• and risks related to displacement and exclusion.

4.5 Resilience Capacity Analysis

Assess existing and missing:

• absorptive capacities,
• adaptive capacities,
• transformative capacities at household, community and institutional levels.

The analysis should assess:

• coping mechanisms,
• institutional functionality,
• social support systems,
• local governance mechanisms,
• early warning, preparedness and anticipatory systems;
• and opportunities for systems strengthening.

4.6 Conflict Sensitivity and Do-No-Harm Analysis

Assess potential risks and unintended negative impacts associated with the intervention, including exclusion risks, clan and power dynamics, elite capture, resource competition, tensions between IDPs and host communities, gender-related risks and risks associated with aid targeting and resource allocation.

4.7 Stakeholder Consultation and Validation

Conduct consultations with relevant stakeholders and facilitate at least one validation workshop.

4.8 Project Design and Strategic Recommendations

Based on the analysis, provide recommendations regarding:

• resilience pathways and intervention prioritization,
• climate-resilient livelihoods and systems strengthening approaches,
• governance and conflict-sensitive implementation mechanisms,
• targeting, localization and sustainability strategies,
• Theory of Change refinement and results framework recommendations.

The consultant/team shall ensure that analytical findings are systematically translated into operational recommendations, resilience pathways, intervention sequencing and measurable project outcomes.

5. Methodology

The consultancy is expected to apply a participatory and mixed-methods approach combining:

• desk review,
• key informant interviews (KIIs),
• focus group discussions (FGDs),
• stakeholder consultations,
• resilience and vulnerability mapping,
• systems analysis,
• political economy analysis,
• conflict-sensitive analysis,
• and participatory validation approaches.

The methodology should ensure triangulation of qualitative and quantitative findings and apply conflict-sensitive and gender-responsive data collection approaches.

For the purpose of this assignment, systems analysis refers to the assessment of institutional, governance, service delivery, market, social and community-level structures influencing resilience outcomes.

The methodology should align with:

• BMZ expectations for project-shaping resilience analysis,
• resilience and HDP Nexus programming approaches,
• conflict-sensitive and Do-No-Harm principles,
• and locally led and inclusive programming approaches.

6. Expected Deliverables

• Inception Report
• Draft Resilience Analysis Report
• Resilience Matrix
• Draft Theory of Change and Resilience Pathways Inputs
• Validation Workshop
• Final Resilience Analysis Report
• Final Presentation Slides

7. Suggested Structure of the Final Report

1. Executive Summary
2. Introduction and Methodology
3. Context Analysis
4. Political Economy and Governance Analysis
5. Climate and Environmental Risk Analysis
6. Shock and Stressor Analysis
7. Conflict Sensitivity and Peace & Conflict Assessment
8. Livelihoods and Socioeconomic Systems Analysis
9. Gender and Social Inclusion Analysis
10. Vulnerability and Exposure Analysis
11. Resilience Capacities Analysis (Absorptive, Adaptive, Transformative Capacity)
12. Institutional, Service Delivery and Systems Analysis
13. Social Cohesion and Community Dynamics
14. Scenario and Future Risk Analysis
15. Resilience Gaps and System Constraints
16. Strategic Recommendations for Project Design
17. Resilience Pathways and Theory of Change Refinement
18. Implications for Results Framework and Indicators
19. Assumptions, Risks and Limitations
20. Annexes

8. Duration and Timeline

The assignment is expected to be conducted between June and July 2026.

The estimated level of effort is approximately 20-25 working days.

9. Reporting and Coordination

The consultant/team will report to:

Project Manager, humedica e. V.

Group Lead Africa & LAC, humedica e. V.

The assignment will be implemented in close coordination with:

• Humedica e. V.
• local implementing partner
• technical project staff
• and relevant stakeholders.

Required Qualifications

The consultant/team should demonstrate:

• demonstrated expertise in resilience analysis, HDP Nexus approaches and systems-oriented programming in fragile and conflict-affected settings;
• strong understanding of climate resilience, governance, political economy and conflict sensitivity;
• proven experience applying participatory, inclusive and conflict-sensitive methodologies;
• experience conducting assessments or project design processes in Somalia or comparable fragile contexts;
• familiarity with German donor requirements and frameworks, particularly BMZ Transitional Development Assistance (TDA);
• and strong analytical, facilitation and report-writing skills in English.

How to apply

Interested consultants or consultancy teams are invited to submit:

• Technical Proposal (max. 2 pages), including company profile, relevant experience, proposed methodology, team composition, workplan, timeline, and estimated level of effort.
• Financial Proposal with total cost in EUR and a breakdown of professional fees, travel costs, and any other applicable expenses (inclusive of all taxes and charges).
• CV(s) of the proposed consultant(s), highlighting relevant qualifications and experience.
• Relevant references and sample work demonstrating experience with similar assignments.
• Contact details of the focal person (name, email, and phone number).

Applications should be submitted electronically to: [email protected]

Please indicate "Resilience Analysis Somalia" in the subject line of your email application.

Applications will be reviewed on a rolling basis, and interviews may be conducted prior to the application deadline. Submission deadline: 14. June 2026 23:59 (Germany/ UTC+2)

Late submissions will not be considered. Only shortlisted firms will be contacted.

Selection Criteria

• Relevant Technical Expertise and Experience: Demonstrated experience in conducting resilience analyses and resilience-focused assessments in humanitarian and development contexts.
• Understanding of the Assignment and Methodology: Understanding of the objectives and suitability of the proposed analytical approach and methodology.
• Somalia/Jubaland Contextual Knowledge: Proven experience and understanding of the Somalia/Jubaland context.
• Team Capacity and Workplan: Qualifications of the proposed consultant(s), quality of team composition, and feasibility of the proposed timeline.
• Financial Proposal: Cost-effectiveness and value for money.