TERMS OF REFERENCE(TOR)

TOR NO.: WVSOM/001/FY25

DESCRIPTION: Consultancy Services for Refined Participant Financial Analysis in Baidoa and Xudur

World Vision is a relief, development, and advocacy organization dedicated to working with children, families, and communities. We work with community members, supporting them to overcome poverty and injustice.  We aim to lift poor and marginalized households out of the vicious cycle of dependence by addressing the underlying causes of vulnerability to environmental and socio-economic shocks. 

Project Description

Empowering Marginalized Groups through Economic Graduation in Somalia (EMERGE) is a Resilience and Food Security activity funded by USAID (BHA) in Somalia.

The 5-year project (2024-2029), implemented by World Vision and its partners seeks support for extremely poor, socially marginalized internally displaced persons (IDP) and surrounding host communities (HC) in Baidoa and Xudur to improve and maintain their food security despite shocks and stresses.

EMERGE’s Theory of Change (ToC) is: IF social capital and cohesion are strengthened through bolstering new and existing linkages to networks and services within and between urban, peri-urban, and rural communities AND human capital is increased through strengthening capacities, skills, and linkages and improving psychosocial and physical wellbeing WHILE access to livelihood opportunities, information, and marketing opportunities is improved along with increased financial inclusion, THEN prosperous and resilient livelihoods will be improved and sustained, RESULTING IN extremely poor, socially marginalized populations who have graduated, thereby improving and maintaining their food security despite shocks and stresses.

The EMERGE uses the graduation approach to lift participants out of extreme poverty. The five elements of the graduation approach are:

1.            Consumption Support.

2.            Ongoing coaching and mentoring.

3.            Increased savings and access to financial services.

4.            Livelihood-focused business and technical skill building.

5.            Asset transfers.

1.         PURPOSE AND SCOPE OF THE PARTICIPANT FINANCIAL ANALYSIS 

During the design phase of the program, WV and partners completed an in-depth initial PFA which identified the top 12 recommended livelihoods. The resultant report demonstrated contextual market variations between Baidoa and Hudur and presented livelihoods that are appropriate for each district.

The livelihoods were selected based on market assessment; knowledge of participant preferences based on current programming, including gender, age, clan, and physical requirements; potential for increased income and profits; reasonability of start-up costs given asset transfer limitations; ability to have regular access to inputs and clients/buyers; market saturation risks; and climate resilience. Acknowledging the volatile nature of markets in both districts, all these options have to be validated using a refined Participant Financial analysis and to ensure that market saturation does not become an issue, inputs remain available and affordable, the livelihood remains stable and not overly crisis-prone, and there are interested clients/buyers.

The refined PFA will further assist in identifying and comprehending the current demand-supply context of the regional states as well as the functionality of the market in the district locations, price, supply chain, availability of food and non-food items, traders' capacity, as well as service needs and gaps.

The objective of Refined Participant Financial Analysis

The refined PFA will validate the likely impact on real net incomes of farmers and entrepreneurs participating in the EMERGE project by assisting WV and partners in identifying which livelihood options and income-generating activities (IGA) should be prioritized by the project interventions.

The PFA will help World Vision focus the five graduation components on livelihood options with the highest income-generating potential and with long-term financial, social, and environmental sustainability.

This assessment will make use of primary information gathered from key informant interviews at all levels; IDP community focus group discussions, local leaders, government officials, businessmen, observations, and interviews with financial service providers.

The participant Financial Analysis will use the guidelines and tools as provided by BHA/USAID to confirm that proposed livelihood interventions will lead to financial benefits for the activity participants.

 General Objectives;

a)      Identify among the livelihood options which intervention might give the most value for money

b)      To create dynamic financial analyses for the proposed livelihood interventions that project investment requirements, operating expenses, sales volume and pricing, gross income, and net income over time using a discounted financial analysis approach

c)       Offer justifiable criteria for use in prioritization of the proposed livelihood interventions

Specific objectives:

a)      Establish market size (local and external) and market penetration by each of the identified livelihoods

b)      Provide an analysis for the Implementation costs per intervention

c)       Assess the impact on household income and resilience if participants are   engaging in multiple interventions

d)      Conduct a risk analysis for each of the proposed interventions

e)      Develop and present requirements for scaling up the more viable livelihood options/interventions

f)        Conduct a VCA to identify the different actors in the chain, systemic constraints, and value shares accrued at different stages of the chain.

g)       Identify constraints that limit market expansion and opportunities for improvement and expansion.

h)       Identify missing or inadequate inter-sectoral or crosscutting markets. e) Estimate the market potential of the prioritized products within the value chains.

i)        Collective Marketing and Value Chain Efficiency a) Assess the utility and potential for improving market efficiency through collective marketing; propose ways of achieving this and the minimum quality standards required.

j)         Determine the level of market orientation and market integration by producers.

k)       Suggest improvements in the value chain system to ensure direct linkages of the producers with the major markets and increased incomes from their products.

3.0    METHODOLOGY

The successful consultant is expected to conduct the labor market assessment and analysis by working closely with the EMERGE project team. To meet the objectives of this assignment, the winning service provider has to apply the following:

a)      Desk review of secondary data including project documents reports, assessments, and other documents related to the previous labor market surveys done by other stakeholders.

b)      Interviews and meetings with relevant stakeholders with a focus on the members of the Chamber of Commerce, representing the various sectors and sub-sectors such as Banking & Finance, Micro-finance Institutions, Private Business sectors, Agricultural Livestock Value chains, , as well as relevant Ministries and institutions

c)       Field visits to observe the community environment to assess the needs of microbusinesses, and conduct feasibility assessment on the potential microbusiness ideas relevant to the covered sectoral skills.

d)      Market observations and interviews of existing local businesses. 

3.1.         STUDY DESIGN

Scope

Geographic Areas and Target Population

The PFA targets households, youth, and business people in IDPs camps, host communities, and refugees/returnees in Baidoa and Hudur districts. The PFA will also consider other stakeholders pertinent to the  financial services provision. In the assessment, the team will engage with the key stakeholders and players in the financial service sector such as the youth, business people, micro-finance institutions, banks, producer groups, key line ministries including the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs (MoLSA), Ministry of Youth ,Ministry of Commerce , and other stakeholders.

Context

The PFA will be done with the context taking into consideration the changes that may take place during the project implementation period (political tension/election in the assessment areas, droughts, flooding, and insecurity). The survey team will also analyze the information on how the changes in context affect the implementation of the intervention including the effectiveness of adaptation efforts to be made by the implementing partners, communities, and other stakeholders.

Survey design

The survey will be cross-sectional and employ a mixed-method approach in data collection, triangulation, and analysis drawing on quantitative and qualitative data.  Both primary and secondary data will be collected, reviewed, and analyzed. Youth/Household questionnaire survey (HS), focus group discussions (FGDs), and key informant interviews (KIIs) will be used to gather primary data from the youth/households and the business people. The study will have three phases intertwined in the PFA process:

§  Phase one: will involve a comprehensive desk review of secondary information based on the existing information from program Needs Assessment Reports, Financial Assessment Reports, Labor Market Assessment Reports, Tracer Studies, and any other relevant reports produced in Somalia.

§  Phase two: quantitative youth/household survey using structured questionnaires

§  Phase three: qualitative information gathering using observations, FGDs, and KIIs from youth/households in Baidoa and Hudur, business people, and other relevant stakeholders.

Rationale for the choice of mixed methods design.

The mixed design focuses on both quantitative and qualitative approaches in data collection, analysis, and presentation[1]. The mixed methods approach has emerged as a practical methodology in conducting assessments/PFA and evaluations for projects as it gives greater insight into phenomena through information validation and triangulation. Advantages of the methodology include the following:

§  Data from different sources provides an opportunity to understand changes from different standpoints. One data source may not be enough to give explanations for behavior, results, and practices

§  Peculiarity in data collection leads to greater validity as information omitted by one method can be augmented by another source.

§  This method answers PFA questions from several viewpoints. It Ensures that there are no ‘gaps’ in the information collected.

§  The method is helpful when one methodology does not provide all the information required.

§  It’s a good methodology for social, health, and behavioral studies as it interacts with several stakeholders and utilizes all available from multiple levels and lines of evidence n to conclude.

Sampling Design

To actualize this design, the PFA will target different stakeholders and population groups using different data collection methods i.e. structured questionnaires and focus group discussions for targeted households, key informant interviews for business people, youth workforce, and government technical units. All information gathered from these sources will be synthesized and analyzed to answer the survey question

The consultant will choose an appropriate sampling methodology including but not limited to a One-Stage Simple Random Sample design to ensure that participants have an equal probability of selection for the survey, thereby producing unbiased estimates. 

While designing the assessment tool, the assessment team will consider various factors. For this assessment, both quantitative and qualitative approaches will be employed in gathering information at household levels and with the business service sectors and institutions. The assessment also considers business people and other stakeholders relevant to play crucial roles in the market value chains. WVI expects the consultant to more emphasis on the qualitative approach as it helps to generate in-depth thoughts, perceptions, and issues in the proposed value chains.  Items covered in the questionnaire will be framed from project outputs, intermediate outcomes, sub-purposes, purposes, and the goal. Further in this approach, the assessment team will adopt the best sampling methods taking into consideration sample size to be used at different levels in the later assessments and evaluations. This should be well elaborated in the inception report..

  Data Sources

Primary data will be collected among the sample community groups in the targeted districts. Additionally, business people, local authorities, and other relevant stakeholders will be included in qualitative data collection as appropriate to better understand the context.

Documents Review

The survey team will undertake a thorough review of all available project documents as deemed necessary to gather vital information on the project design, implementation, and monitoring processes.  Of necessity, the survey team will review the following literature:

ž   Project technical proposal including

ž   USAID PFA guidelines for RFSA

ž   SomRep Annual Resilience Measurement Reports

ž   MOUs signed with line ministries

ž   Any PFA Study Reports in Somalia.

ž   Any other relevant documents by FSNAU, WFP, UNICEF, UNOCHA, and others as required

Field Processes

Selection and training of enumerators: Enumerators with previous research experience and the ability to speak Somali and English languages will be recruited. Key government officials from the Ministry of Planning, Investment and Economic Development, Ministry of Agriculture, and Ministry of Livestock, Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs (MoLSA), Ministry of Youth & Sport, will be engaged to support the process. Depending on sample size, a total of [xxx male, xxx female] enumerators will be engaged for a survey and these will work hand-in-hand with the WV Staff during data collection. The field team (enumerators & project staff) will be trained in data collection techniques using online platform and/or any appropriate platform and master of the data collection tools before the field data collection exercise. During the training, the field team will also be briefed on the objectives of the survey, how to identify the appropriate respondents at various levels, and how to fill in the questionnaire appropriately. Emphasis will be put on research ethics, accuracy, and completeness among others.

Field Data Collection: The team will use mobile phones configured with Kobo Toolbox mobile application for data collection (Uses WV Kobo server).  The interviews and discussions will be conducted mainly in the Somali language.  Focus group discussions will be conducted by experienced researchers using a predetermined focus group guide with relevant themes and sub-themes, while key informant interviews will be conducted using a predetermined guide with open-ended questions for specific informants.

To ensure the effectiveness of the data collection process, the tools (questionnaires, FGDs, KIIs) will be pre-tested with a small sample to refine them based on initial feedback. The assessment tools will be developed collaboratively by involving relevant and local stakeholders to guarantee relevance and cultural appropriateness considering language clarity, thematic relevance, and local context will be used to ensure the tools align with the objectives of the assessment.

3.3. ANALYSIS AND REPORTING:

The household questionnaire will be automated using Kobo Collect application and completed questionnaires on field Task will be uploaded to the server. The data gathered will be analyzed and interpreted systematically. Quantitative data will be analyzed using SPSS or other statistical data analysis programs available that can help generate the required information. Qualitative data will be analyzed for key themes and used to supplement quantitative data organized into themes. Both qualitative and quantitative data should be used to find the most viable financial services.

The descriptive statistics including the frequencies, percentages, and proportions will be used in the quantitative analysis based on responses under each question. Cross tabulations will be used to measure the variation of information among different groups of respondents and from various administrative units where necessary. Qualitative data will be analyzed using thematic and content analysis with the help of analysis sheets.

Findings and Conclusions: Findings will be presented in the form of text, graphics, and tables. The survey team will prepare the report in a user-friendly format, following the structure agreed in the inception report. This section will present findings as statements of fact that are based on analysis of the data. The survey findings will be structured around the survey questions so that report users can readily make the connection between what was asked and what was found. Variances between planned and actual results will be explained, as well as factors affecting the achievement of intended results. The assumptions or risks in the project design that subsequently affected implementation will also be discussed. The conclusion section will be comprehensive and balanced; it will highlight the gaps, bottlenecks, and opportunities in the targeted districts. The conclusion section will be substantiated by the evidence and logically connected to the survey findings. The conclusion will also respond to key survey questions and provide insights into the identification of and/or solutions to important problems or issues pertinent to the decision-making.

Data Quality Control & Survey Ethics

All data quality control measures will be adhered to during the survey including; reviewing of the study tools, translation of the tools into local languages, standardization of the training (pre-testing and ensuring that the enumerators are familiar with local terminology), review of evidence against bond evidence parameters, using GPS functionality in Kobo to geo-reference the data, regular supervision and data cleaning. The administered tools will be checked regularly for correctness, completeness, and consistency. After entry, the data will be cross-checked to ensure the accuracy of the information obtained from the field and then compared and validated. During analysis, validation will be done by comparing the emerging information with secondary data to ensure that any outliers are addressed. 

Ethical Consideration: The following ethical considerations will be adhered to during the survey process:

    The rights and privacy of individuals

    Voluntary nature of participation – and the rights of individuals to withdraw partially or completely from the process

    Consent and possible deception of participants

    Maintenance of the confidentiality of data provided by individuals or identifiable participants and their anonymity

    Reactions of participants to how researchers seek to collect data.

    Effects on participants of how data is analyzed and reported.

    Behavior and objectivity of the surveyor.

3.4. RESPONSIBILITY AND AUTHORITY 

Survey Team Responsibilities

The consultant will lead the development of Technical and Budget proposals that include an assessment plan, methodology, and appropriate/relevant data collection and analysis tools.

    Work closely with Consortium Management and Technical/  M&E Advisors during the design of the methodology/ tools; agree on the tools that will be used.

    Presenting the methodologies and tools to the Consortium Technical Team and agree on the final tools.

    The consultant will train and guide enumerators, and Project staff on the data collection protocols and data collection tools.

    Design data entry and analysis spreadsheets

    Monitor and verify data entry and quality control

    Make visits to data collection sites and do FGDs and KIIs

    Incorporate feedback from sector teams into tools and reports

    Approximately one-hour PowerPoint presentation of results and discussions to be delivered

    The result is expected to be published and the survey team needs to give due attention to the quality of the report. 

EMERGE Project Management Team Responsibilities

    Provide reference documents like project technical proposals, earlier evaluations and progress reports

    Do community and stakeholder mobilizations for the assessment

    Support recruitment of enumerators

    Source, hire, and pay for enumerators (depending on the contracting conditions).

    Review the assessment plan and tools before use

    The Technical Team will support the training of enumerators on the data collection protocols and data collection tools

    The project team supports and facilitates household data collection

    The M&E officers in districts conduct supervision and data verification during data collection

    Review the draft report and provide feedback to the survey team.

    Approved inception report, survey tool, and final report.

[1] Creswell, J. W., & Plano Clark, V. L. (2011). Designing and conducting mixed methods research (2nd Ed.). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications, Inc.

Consultancy Qualification Requirements 

Research consulting firms with the following qualifications and skills are required:

1.       Key Skills:

                     i.            At least a master’s degree in Marketing and Finance, Agricultural Economics or Agricultural Development or Social Science especially in Economics and Development Economics.

                    ii.            At least 10 years of practical experience in the field of agriculture and rural development, and development of enterprise support institutions with good understanding of local value chain development and market analysis. International experience in the same thematic areas is a strong advantage.

                  iii.            Strong writing and intercultural communication skills

                  iv.            Knowledge of the socio-economic environment in Somalia is an added advantage

                    v.            Sensitivity to cultural and understanding of political and ethical issues in Somalia

                  vi.            Knowledge of Somali context, region – South West State  

2.       Experience:

                     i.            Minimum of five (5) years of experience in labor market policy development, planning, and analysis.

                    ii.            Experience with vocational training and job placement programs

                  iii.            Similar work experience – in the region is essential.

3.       Language:

i.      Proficiency in written and spoken English.

ii.     Good working knowledge of Somali is an asset.

4.       Deliverables:

i.                     Inception report including data analysis plan

ii.                   A refined PFA financial model for the 12 livelihood options.

iii.                  PFA narratives for the 12 livelihood options and PowerPoint slides in preparation for the culmination workshop.

iv.                 PFA Annex and supporting documentation.

v.                   Additional recommendations.

vi.                 A workshop to share the preliminary findings with the consortium and relevant key actors in the project, and collect feedback before the final report validated

vii.                Delivery of final, live financial models and data input sheets as per the USAID/BHA guidelines for PFA

viii.              Survey Questionnaires

ix.                 High-resolution pictures (field activity snapshot

4.0          PROPOSALS EVALUATION CRITERIA

1.            Mandatory Requirements

i.              Provide a certified copy of business registration(company/organization)

ii.             Provide a valid tax compliance certificate

Only firms with a valid Business Registration Certificate and a Tax Compliance Certificate are eligible to apply for this consultancy service. Failure to provide these mandatory documents will result in automatic disqualification.

2.            Technical Requirements

         i.            Provide updated company profile demonstrating technical capabilities and relevant experience of the applicant

       ii.            Provide references including names and contact information from previous clients who can be contacted regarding relevant experience (At least five similar assignments in a similar context)

      iii.            Detailed CVs of key personnel (including any formal qualifications) should be provided (Annex)

     iv.            Provide Technical proposal clearly demonstrating the applicant’s technical capacity and its understanding of the project requirements,

       v.            Work plan showing time frame of the PFA

     vi.            Presence in Somalia or Any Fragile countries

3.            Financial Evaluation

Provide financial proposal that includes

         i.            A detailed breakdown of costs associated with the delivery of the LMA exercise including Logistics Cost

       ii.            Credit Terms

Payment Terms

Interested qualified consultancy firms are encouraged to submit their proposal with the below documents in English and by email to [email protected]  on or before 11th December 2024.

Proposals should be submitted in three distinct/separate attachments, namely

1.            Mandatory Requirements

2.            Technical Proposal

3.            Financial Proposal

NB (Bidders who will combine the three documents shall be disqualified). Bids received after the deadline shall not be considered.

Email title should be; Consultancy Services for Participant Financial Analysis (PFA ) in Baidoa and Xudur

“World Vision reserves the right to accept or reject any Bid and is not bound to give reasons for its decision”

For inquiries and questions, kindly send an email to [email protected]