Terms of Reference

For consultancy service to conduct

Conflict, Political, Economic and Security Assessment (COPESA)

Date of issue: Tuesday, 26 December 2023

Project title: 12207 - MIDEEYE Project: Support of the National Reconciliation and Local Governance in Somalia

Deadline for submission of offers:  Monday, 15 January 2024 at 23:50 P.M. (East Africa Time Zone)

Contracting authority: FCA Somalia Country Office

Contact : Procurement Committee

E-mail: [email protected]

1        Introduction and background information

FCA Somalia Country Office is looking for qualified consultant(s) to undertake Conflict, Political, Economic and Security Assessment (COPESA), under ‘MIDEEYE Project - Support of the National Reconciliation and Local Governance in Somalia’, in January 2024, in the districts of Mahas, Adaale, and Hobyo, in Somalia.

FCA is the biggest development and humanitarian aid organization in Finland. FCA is currently operating in 13 countries in Asia, Africa and Middle East and is specialized in three thematic priority areas: Right to Peace (R2P), Right to Livelihood (R2L) and Right to Quality Education (R2QE). In Somalia, FCA began its operation in 2007 through support to peace building initiatives in Somaliland and Puntland. Following the success of the interventions, FCA Somalia expanded its operation to other parts of South Central of Somalia in 2013, evolving from community level peace building initiatives to state building and state formation interventions at FGS and FMS levels. FCA Somalia also facilitated the state formation process between 2014 and 2015 which resulted in the formation of the Galmudug State.

At the request of the Somali government and with the generous financial support of the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland (MFA Finland), the FCA Somalia together with the Network for Religious and Traditional Peacemakers (NRTP) hosted by FCA, provide support to the Ministry of Interior, Federal Affairs and Reconciliation (MoIFAR), in leading the development process and implementation of the National Reconciliation Framework (NRF) through MIDEEYE project, until end of the year 2024.

2        Background information on MIDEEYE project

MIDEEYE project is a joint initiative of FCA and NRTP. MIDEEYE, translates as “unifier” from Somali, to illustrate its aim to create trust and social cohesion by strengthening efficiency and inclusivity of governance on several levels. MIDEEYE is aiming to contribute to Somalia’s peacebuilding efforts by addressing need for wholistic reconciliation and strengthening inclusive governance. MIDEEYE’s approach to reconciliation is largely informed by the National Reconciliation Framework (NRF), a strategy document jointly drafted by Ministry of Interior, Federal Affairs and Reconciliation (MoIFAR), FCA, and NRTP alongside other actors in 2017 and approved by the FGS and cabinet members in 2019. The NRF frames the reconciliatory process in terms of repair of social relationships and the rebuilding of trust between conflicting communities. In order to realize key objectives outlined in the NFR and contribute to national peace and state-building, the FCA defined MIDEEYE goals as follows:  

(i)             Outcome 1: Increasing the capacity of the Federal Government and selected FMS to implement the NFR and thereby strengthening the legitimacy and trust in government institutions, and

(ii)            Outcome 2: Improving inclusive governance and administration in selected Federal Member States (FMS) to achieve more effective service delivery, in line with the NFR and Wadajir National Framework for local governance.

The four-year (2021 to 2024) MIDEEYE project supports key government institutions, such as the MoIs and district councils, traditional leaders, leaders of women’s groups, and youth representatives in selected FMS.

3        COPESA Assessment Objectives

Overall Objectives of the COPESA Assessment

The MIDEEYE project utilizes evidence-based approach to its programming and implementation. Mahas, Adaale, and Hobyo districts of Somalia, have been selected as some of the districts that could receive support for the district council formation process (DCF) under the MIDEEYE project. To design and implement a district council formation process that is inclusive to local community stakeholders, mindful of current socio-political realities, and responsive to the priorities and support needs of the stakeholders in these districts, a Conflict, Political, Economic and Security Assessment (COPESA) needs to be carried out.

Primary purpose of the COPESA is to provide FCA and relevant partners, a detailed analysis report to assesses the status of factors and community perceptions, that contribute to design of the DCF process, and provides baseline information for the activities to be carried out. This included description and detailed analysis of 1) conflict mapping; actors and types of conflict present, 2) Existing conflict and dispute resolution mechanisms; and identifies needs for reconciliation efforts and maps ongoing processes, 2) governance, 3) overall state of security and access to justice, and 4) political-economy conditions; including mapping main livelihoods and exiting natural resources.

The assessment further aims to identify community priorities in the districts in relation areas of the basic service delivery, mitigation/ and resolution of conflict. This community perception of the priorities will feed into analyses of the small quick-impact projects (SQUIP) to be designed with the communities to help sustain the newly formed district councils. The SQUIP projects will be gender sensitive and the consultations are expected to emphasize the needs of key community stakeholders of the district, inclusive of women, youth and minorities. In addition, assess political economy and security status, and include establishing of a clear picture of political, economic and security situation in the assessment district, and understanding conflict dynamics, historical grievances, and governance structures which can impact the formation of the inclusive district council.

COPESA Assessment Specific objectives for analysis:

COPESA assessment should establish an overview of the following areas in the districts of Mahas, Adaale, and Hobyo;

Conflict assessment: description of the types of conflict and violence present, their root causes, key actors involved, community effects; with particular focus on women, youth and marginalised groups

·         Describing existing mitigation measures and conflict resolution practices and alternative dispute resolution mechanism

·         Community perception, needs and grievances, including

o    past and present clan conflict drivers and overall conflict dynamics,

o    past peacebuilding efforts (including reconciliation undertakings),

o    actors involved in the region.

·         Assess overall district security, including

o    security actors, security providers,

o    accessibility

o    main security challenges,

o    presence of ATMIS, police and SNA forces and other actors

o    safe avenues to implement pre and post district council formation process activities.

o    judiciary systems / institutions, access to justice and dispensation of justice.

·         Study existing local administration structures, including:

o    description of authorities and key institutions in the region

o    social services delivery infrastructure andstatus of available social services,

o    current power-sharing arrangements and practices

o    capacity of institutions to provide essential basic services.

·         To identify Small Quick Impact Project (SQUIP) that can address the basic needs of the community with emphasis to inclusivity

·         Describe the prevalent means of livelihood, development areas or challenges faced, including identifying:

o    main economic sectors, and types of livelihoods

o    existing natural resources and their current management

o    resources and opportunities available for livelihood development

o    livelihood activities women and youth engage in, and

o    any major challenges or developments affecting these in the district

·         Provide information about how vulnerable groups are included to decision making processes in the district (youth, women, IDPs, PwDs, and other minorities)

·         Provide information about the existing of media and communications landscapes and central platforms of sources of information for community.

4        COPESA Assessment Scope of work

·         Undertake desk review/secondary analysis of documentation, development and finalizing of data collection tools based on inputs from the team

·         Develop detail inception report including study design, sampling and detailed work plan

·         Train assessment teams on research instruments and ethical standards

·         Undertake fieldwork (field data collection), data analysis interpretation, preparation and submission of draft assessment report

·         Incorporate the COPESA assessment report with feedback received from FCA, finalize the report, Presentation of key findings, and submission of the final report.

5        COPESA Assessment Specific Deliverables

(i)     One (combined for all the 3 districts) COPESA assessment inception report detailing the assessment methodology, sampling strategy, workplans, and data collection tools.

(ii)    Three separate (one for each district) COPESA assessment draft reports that summarizes the key findings based on themes, conclusions, and practical recommendations. 

(iii)   Three separate (one for each district) finalized COPESA report that takes into account the comments from the FCA Somalia team.

(iv)  Three separate (one for each district) summarized version of the COPESA assessment report for external audience.

(v)   Three separate (one for each district) PPT slides for the presentation of the COPESA assessment report key findings for relevant individuals.   

6        Duration of the COPESA Assessment contract

Duration of this contract is one month and 20 days (50 days).

7        COPESA Assessment Duty Station

The consultant(s) will undertake in-country field work and reporting based on agreed work-plan and methodology. The assessment will take place in Mahas, Adaale, and Hobyo, Somalia.

8        COPESA Assessment Transport & Logistics

The consultant(s) will cover their field transport and accommodation arrangements, translator and/or interpreter needs, focal points and other contact points on the field and other logistical arrangements concerning consultant’s visit(s).

9        COPESA Assessment Methodology

The COPESA assessment is expected to use a mixed method design that combines quantitative and qualitative data collection methods. The data collection methods that use an inclusive and participatory process, attempting to get relevant stakeholders to participate in the assessment exercise, are prioritized.

      i.        Desk review: review of project documents, available governmental documents at federal and member state level (i.e. Wadajir Framework, National Stabilization Strategy, National Reconciliation Framework), key academic literature on the ecosystem of state-building, peace-building,  stabilization and reconciliation, and other conflict and context analysis of Lower Shabelle region and as well as district-level assessments and reports, donor guidelines, and any other relevant literatures.

     ii.        Household survey: conduct household surveys from a representative sample of the population from the targeted regions.

    iii.        Key informant interviews: interview government officials from the relevant ministries, district administrations, local politicians, opinion leaders, traditional elders, women and youth leaders, community leaders and impactful persons, minorities leaders, etc.

    iv.        Focus group discussions: hold discussions with community-based structures and groups to establish snapshot of community situation in terms of access to basic services, clan dynamics, local governance, resources and economic opportunities, access to humanitarian services, community engagements, dialogue and reconciliation activities, justice systems, needs and grievances, conflict and security dynamics, and inclusive decision making processes.

Proposed sampling strategy

The COPESA assessment data collection will use both probabilistic and non-probabilistic sampling designs. These will include stratified sampling, purposive and expert sampling methods. The following sample size calculation formula by Taro Yamane commonly known as Yamane’s formula will be used.

n=sample size,

N=Target population size,

ɛ=critical value of 0.05 at 95% confidence interval.

Substitute with assessment target area(s) values, the above computation yields a sample size of xxx which is approximately xxx HHs. This sample size will then be distributed proportionately between community-based structures and groups such as IDPs and host communities (pastoral, agropastoral, and urban poor) with consideration of minorities, marginalized and PLWDs. This will ensure that information on specific group is not left out during the sampling of the households.

10     COPESA Assessment Tenders/Offers Validity

Tenders/Offers shall remain valid and open for acceptance for a period of 30 days after the closing date for the submission.

11     COPESA Assessment Timetable

The COPESA Assessment is expected to comply with the following indicative timeframe and set deliverables in the table below.

1        COPESA Assessment Payment Modalities

The purpose of this section is to provide a detailed payment schedule and modalities against the deliverables. The payments will be processed upon completion of the following milestones.

·         20% after completion, submission and acceptance of COPESA assessment inception report – combined for all the 3 districts.

·         30% after completion, submission and acceptance of detailed COPESA assessment draft reports – separate for each district.

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